Special Election for SC’s First Congressional District Now a Toss-Up, According to New Poll

Public Policy Polling’s final poll of the special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District finds a race too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46.

The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP’s poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.

Pollsters believe that Sanford’s gains result from nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically ‘about right.’ Colbert Busch’s favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

While Colbert Busch is seen as too liberal, 48% of voters think that Sanford’s views are “about right” on the issues compared to just 38% who see him as too conservative. Sanford’s also seen some repair to his image over the course of the campaign. Although he’s still unpopular, sporting a -11 net favorability rating at 43/54, that’s up a net 13 points from PPP’s first poll in March when he was at 34/58.

“The special election in South Carolina couldn’t be much closer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point it’s just a question of whether voters are more put off by Mark Sanford or the Democrats in Washington.”

PPP surveyed 1,239 likely voters on May 4th and 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%.